1. Rogers and Emery Combine for Heist
Are match outcomes be misleading? That is the question. The Villans' triumphant run persisted with a win over Manchester United, accompanied by the persistent questions. They were the lesser team by multiple metrics – less attempts (12-15), reduced ball control (43-57), fewer big chances (2-3). Once again, the victory was a slender one. Consistently, expected goals (xG) sided with the opposition: analysis indicates United had the slight advantage 1.31-1.02. However, supporters understand games are decided on the pitch, not on spreadsheets. They are won by collective effort, tactical brilliance and sparkling skill – and Villa boast the complete package. Morgan Rogers might just be their sole standout, but he’s delivering as a timely gift. The Villa manager is wily, experienced, streets ahead of Ruben Amorim. If Rogers profited from a defensive lapse, this was almost certainly because the manager identified that his opponent was uncomfortable, and told Rogers to take up a wide position, drive inside and cause him problems. Skill and strategy, combining effectively.
2. Amorim Continues to Fall Short
Following United's victory over Brighton 4-2 last month, their fans felt optimism return. They managed three league games consecutively for the initial occasion under the Portuguese coach. They had risen to fourth. And the wins were impressive victories – over Brighton (a side they often struggle against), Liverpool (on the road!) and Sunderland (at home, facing a team fresh from the Championship, but still – an untroubled victory). The goalkeeper was reassuring, their forward line sparked and optimism was growing. But then United went back to black. In a run of eight matches, only two victories, six disappointing results. Against Aston Villa they were the more dominant side without ever appearing likely to triumph. Yes, their forward scored a good goal, but he also blazed over a simple chance. Yes, United were hit by fitness issues (to influential figures), but they were punished for defensive errors. After 13 months in England, the coach continues to struggle with how to claim three points.
3. Arteta's Men Win Ugly to Return to the Summit
It was an 8pm kick-off on the festive weekend but a distinct lack of quality in the final third made for a drab affair. For Everton, the issue was expected with creative forces absent, and their star man failing to inspire an entire team on his own. In many respects it is astonishing that Everton sat fifth in the table two weeks earlier given they have played all term without a decent striker. For Arsenal and their manager, while he enjoyed a merited victory and a return to the top of the table, the deficiency should be of similar concern given their ambitions for the Premier League. Arteta insisted that victories will inevitably be more emphatic with hard work and perseverance. But it is a little early in the season for a team that can start with international stars, while leaving quality substitutes on the bench, to be needing to win ugly.
4. Guardiola’s Festive City Investigations
On Christmas Day the Catalan coach will check the weights to ensure his Manchester City players have not indulged too much. He explained the team wanted to have a rest day after their recent victory but he declined because they didn’t play good enough. So they will recuperate, work for those who didn't feature, and after three days off, then brief training for the upcoming match. He explained how improvements can be made. “I excel at analyzing what happens in the game, locating the gaps – if the players were in the right areas, we could create more.” Guardiola will also enjoy a rest: “I'm taking a break with the family for celebrations. I'll visit Barcelona – it's a great city, the food is excellent.”
5. Liverpool's Joy Tempered by Isak Blow
Alexander Isak’s goal at Tottenham felt, for a glorious few seconds, like an arrival. This was exactly what Liverpool splashed the cash for him to do, to decide close contests with his movement and range of finishing, and the assurance with which he converted from good service boded superbly. So the scene of his substitution immediately, the victim of a ill-judged tackle, was a significant blow for the Liverpool manager and disappointing for the spectator who would like to see such a gifted player reach his peak again. There are fears Isak has picked up a serious leg injury and he likely faces a long time on the sidelines. It would be a major blow with the Reds having steadily climbed towards the top four, putting together a solid undefeated streak bookended by Isak’s maiden league strikes in their colours. Their campaign trajectory appear heavily dependent on those of their prize asset.
6. Did Chelsea Get Away with One?
Managers often complain about controversial calls as a means of diverting the narrative from matters they want to keep private. The 13 points Newcastle have squandered when ahead this season is a prime example. The Newcastle boss certainly did not seem overly keen to mention that problematic pattern following his side’s failure to protect a 2-0 lead against Chelsea in a game they ended up drawing. Yet Howe was surely right to question a decision made by the referee not to award his team a penalty following a blatant body check on Anthony Gordon. With the score then 2-1, a penalty could have changed the narrative. Was the decision to offer the opposing player the doubt informed by past incidents for being expert at winning penalties and sometimes going down too easily? The take of a well-known analyst was interesting. “He sees the challenge coming,” he said. “He expects the tackle and he's ready. I think he intends to hit the deck. But the strength of the challenge there … it constitutes a foul.”
7. A 99.17% Certainty
Brentford’s first away win this season spelled a welcome result for Keith Andrews. Rather than celebrate, Andrews spoke kindly about Wolves, the club he came through at. “A large chunk of my life was here,” he said. Wolves’ situation is beyond dire; data analysts state – perhaps generously – their chances of relegation at 99.17%, leaving nothing to play for beyond honour. A senior professional brutally spelled out|bluntly outlined|frankly
